What is an Intra-State Conflict?
Parties |
Government vs non-government actor |
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25 battle-related deaths a year |
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Has to be fought over governing territory. Otherwise usually not counted |
Fragile States
Fragile state index |
En index with states and a respective number. Higher number = more fragility = more conflict prone |
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States with insufficient will or capacity to meet the needs of its people. States that are less able to deal with crisis and more vulnerable to political and violent conflicts |
"Failed States" |
Cannot sustain themselves or their population |
Perception US 2003 |
That failed states are more dangerous than states with ambitions of conquest. (With hindsight can one say that Somalia is more dangerous than Russia?) |
Critique |
Simplistic tool |
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Does fragility cause conflict or does conflict cause fragility? |
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Conflict is part of the index |
UN's Role
Security Council |
Council consting of 5 members and 10 chosen members. Legitimises and is legally binding |
UN |
The great legitimiser for use of force or any controversial political choice for that matter |
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Why care if you can do it? If you do it without mandate can backfire (Tony Blair) |
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Article 51 for self-defence |
Problem |
Inherent problem is that the UN cannot be like NATO, it cannot do war. It relies on being respected, which it traditionally has been, but not so much anymore |
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Only works when P5 agrees |
UN Peacekeeping |
it is a peace operation Carried out by the UN |
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Prevention, observation and assisting |
Peacekeeping does |
Edict levels of violence |
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Prevents the spread of violence |
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Helps mediation and negotiation |
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Maintain peace in the aftermath of conflict |
Peacekeeping does not |
Establish democracy or economic growth |
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Solve the underlying causes of conflict |
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Tend to fight well |
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Moreover: scandals galore |
Does Peacekeeping work? |
Depends on expectations and threshholds |
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Not a "quick fix", but a good tool for keeping peace |
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Causes of Civil War - Walter 2009
Structural Approach |
Civil War happening is a probability with several factors |
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Large population, low GDP, horizontal inequalities (across groups), inconstistent democratic institutions, low coercive ability, rough terrain |
Process Based Approach |
Civil War as result of process where different actors want different things |
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Bargaining theory - War is a very inefficient way to solve conflict, but when civil war occurs it occurs for 3 reasons |
1. Private info, incentives to misrepresent |
Parties withhold information in order to get a better deal in settlments or to prevent good defence. Esp rebel groups |
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Decreases chances of settlement |
2. Commitment and Credibility Issues |
states cannot agree on a post-war solution in a pre-war situation because it might be hard to commit to such a solution. Hard for the government to not suppress the oiposition. The promise the government is making is hard for the opposition to trust. |
3. Indivisible stakes |
Symbolic areas - Kosovo, Jerusalem. Technically you can divide it, but would population let you? |
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Who will get throne after king dies? Daughter, Brother or Son from second marriage |
State Capacity - Fjelde, De Soysa
Government options |
Coercion, co-optation or cooperation |
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threat capacity, economic capacity, and integrative capacity of states |
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Every state has grievances, few have opportunities |
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more money into society (co-optation) - less likely civil war |
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If the system functions, you are less likely to rebel |
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Co-optation > coercion |
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Third-Party Intervention
International intervention |
illegal, Interference in the territory or domestic affairs of another state with military force, typically in a way that compromise a sovereign government’s control over its own territory and population |
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R2P - Right to protect (from genocide and intervene if one goes on) |
Humanitarian Intervention |
Entry into a country by the armed forces of another country or international organisation with the aim of protecting citizens from violation of their human rights |
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So interference but in the name of humanity (conflict between sovereignty and human rights) |
Multilateral Peace Operation |
Operations conducted under UN authority and or the Security Council |
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a) facilitating implementation of peace agreements that are already in place. b) supporting a peace proccess. c) assisting conflict prevention and/or peacebuilding effects. |
UN Peacekeeping |
Keeping up peace |
Third Party Intervention - Kalyvas
After the Cold War Civil Wars are fought differently |
Normal Intrastate down |
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Internationalised intrastate up |
How conflict formes based on tech of parties |
High tech rebels + high tech state= conventional |
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Low tech rebels + high tech state= irregular |
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High tech rebels + low tech state= coup |
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Low tech rebels + low tech rebels= symmetrical nonconventional |
Aid |
Aid increases win probability of side supported |
Third Party - Balch-Lindsay 2008
Intervention |
1000 troops on the ground counted as intervention |
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Intervention for government, rebels, both parties |
Government |
Government more likely to win, slightly negotiated solution |
Rebels |
Rebels more likely to win, though still not very likely. Negotiated solution |
Balanced (salt) |
Long wars, not likely negotiated solution |
Takeaway |
Involvement one-sided increases probability of one party winning and negotiated solution |
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