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Civil Wars and Interventions Cheat Sheet (DRAFT) by

Humanitarian intervention, Third Party intervention

This is a draft cheat sheet. It is a work in progress and is not finished yet.

What is an Intra-­State Conflict?

Government vs non-go­ver­nment actor
25 battle­-re­lated deaths a year
Has to be fought over governing territory. Otherwise usually not counted

Fragile States

Fragile state index
En index with states and a respective number. Higher number = more fragility = more conflict prone
States with insuff­icient will or capacity to meet the needs of its people. States that are less able to deal with crisis and more vulnerable to political and violent conflicts
"­Failed States­"
Cannot sustain themselves or their population
Perception US 2003
That failed states are more dangerous than states with ambitions of conquest. (With hindsight can one say that Somalia is more dangerous than Russia?)
Simplistic tool
Does fragility cause conflict or does conflict cause fragility?
Conflict is part of the index

UN's Role

Security Council
Council consting of 5 members and 10 chosen members. Legiti­mises and is legally binding
The great legiti­miser for use of force or any contro­versial political choice for that matter
Why care if you can do it? If you do it without mandate can backfire (Tony Blair)
Article 51 for self-d­efence
Inherent problem is that the UN cannot be like NATO, it cannot do war. It relies on being respected, which it tradit­ionally has been, but not so much anymore
Only works when P5 agrees
UN Peacek­eeping
it is a peace operation Carried out by the UN
Preven­tion, observ­ation and assisting
Peacek­eeping does
Edict levels of violence
Prevents the spread of violence
Helps mediation and negoti­ation
Maintain peace in the aftermath of conflict
Peacek­eeping does not
Establish democracy or economic growth
Solve the underlying causes of conflict
Tend to fight well
Moreover: scandals galore
Does Peacek­eeping work?
Depends on expect­ations and thresh­holds
Not a "­quick fix", but a good tool for keeping peace

Causes of Civil War - Walter 2009

Structural Approach
Civil War happening is a probab­ility with several factors
Large popula­tion, low GDP, horizontal inequa­lities (across groups), incons­tistent democratic instit­utions, low coercive ability, rough terrain
Process Based Approach
Civil War as result of process where different actors want different things
Bargaining theory - War is a very ineffi­cient way to solve conflict, but when civil war occurs it occurs for 3 reasons
1. Private info, incentives to misrep­resent
Parties withhold inform­ation in order to get a better deal in settlments or to prevent good defence. Esp rebel groups
Decreases chances of settlement
2. Commitment and Credib­ility Issues
states cannot agree on a post-war solution in a pre-war situation because it might be hard to commit to such a solution. Hard for the government to not suppress the oiposi­tion. The promise the government is making is hard for the opposition to trust.
3. Indivi­sible stakes
Symbolic areas - Kosovo, Jerusalem. Techni­cally you can divide it, but would population let you?
Who will get throne after king dies? Daughter, Brother or Son from second marriage

State Capacity - Fjelde, De Soysa

Government options
Coercion, co-opt­ation or cooper­ation
threat capacity, economic capacity, and integr­ative capacity of states
Every state has grieva­nces, few have opport­unities
more money into society (co-op­tation) - less likely civil war
If the system functions, you are less likely to rebel
Co-opt­ation > coercion

Third-­Party Interv­ention

Intern­ational interv­ention
illegal, Interf­erence in the territory or domestic affairs of another state with military force, typically in a way that compromise a sovereign govern­ment’s control over its own territory and population
R2P - Right to protect (from genocide and intervene if one goes on)
Humani­tarian Interv­ention
Entry into a country by the armed forces of another country or intern­ational organi­sation with the aim of protecting citizens from violation of their human rights
So interf­erence but in the name of humanity (conflict between sovere­ignty and human rights)
Multil­ateral Peace Operation
Operations conducted under UN authority and or the Security Council
a) facili­tating implem­ent­ation of peace agreements that are already in place. b) supporting a peace proccess. c) assisting conflict prevention and/or peaceb­uilding effects.
UN Peacek­eeping
Keeping up peace

Third Party Interv­ention - Kalyvas

After the Cold War Civil Wars are fought differ­ently
Normal Intrastate down
Intern­ati­ona­lised intrastate up
How conflict formes based on tech of parties
High tech rebels + high tech state= conven­tional
Low tech rebels + high tech state= irregular
High tech rebels + low tech state= coup
Low tech rebels + low tech rebels= symmet­rical noncon­ven­tional
Aid increases win probab­ility of side supported

Third Party - Balch-­Lindsay 2008

1000 troops on the ground counted as interv­ention
Interv­ention for govern­ment, rebels, both parties
Government more likely to win, slightly negotiated solution
Rebels more likely to win, though still not very likely. Negotiated solution
Balanced (salt)
Long wars, not likely negotiated solution
Involv­ement one-sided increases probab­ility of one party winning and negotiated solution