What is Strategy?
Strategy |
Use of military force to achieve political objectives |
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When choosing between multiple ways of acting, strategy is choosing the best way to act |
Grand Strategy |
Use and organisation of all natural resources to achieve political objectives |
Security |
Freedom from threats to core values |
Strategic Theory
Strategic theory |
Different methods for winning wars |
Clausewitz - War and 4 contexts (essence of war) |
Killing and dying |
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contest between armies, generals and states (competition mental and physical) |
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War= Instrument of policy |
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War= Social activity |
Clausewitz - The Trinity (who controls war) |
People - passion |
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Military - chance |
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Government - reason (determines aims and means) |
Clausewitz - Nature of War (understanding enemy) |
Centre of gravity - i. Enemy’s army ii. Enemy’s capital city iii. Principal ally iv. Leader vi. Public opinion |
Clausewitz - Limited vs Unlimited War |
Limited - territory or leverage for bargaining |
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Unlimited - overthrow and be prepared with new government |
Clausewitz - Calculus |
Ends justify means |
Clausewitz - Friction |
i. Danger posed by enemy ii. Efforts required by own forces iii. Difficult environment. vi. intelligence |
Sun Tzu - Strategic preferance |
War without blood |
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Enemy's 1) strategy 2) alliances 3) army |
Sun Tzu - Intelligence |
Matters only compared to enemy (think Ukraine vs Russia territory knowledge) |
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Quality > quantity |
Mao - Three step plan |
Revolution and strategic defence |
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Guerilla and strategic stalemate |
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Strategic counter-offensive and defeat |
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Modern Warfare
Napoleon |
Europe from limited Warfare, to full mobilisation (conscription) |
Industrialisation |
Railways, steamships, telegraph - big armies |
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New weapons |
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Heavy casualties |
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Naval - steamships, transport |
Total War vs Absolute War |
Total - Drawing on all resources, conscription, economy towards war effort. Absolute war- fighting without restrictions |
Nuclear weapons |
Ended total war era |
Law and use of force
Perception-Reality gap |
International law is ignored vs international law usually obeyed |
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Military conflict usual vs exception |
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International law regulates force vs regulates all inter-state aspects |
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Law is prohibiting vs facilitating |
Why follow International Law? |
Legitimacy |
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Fear of coercion and consequences, self-interests |
Ad Bellum - before war |
Limit resort to military forces |
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UN Articles 2(3-4) Settle disputes by peaceful means and dont use force |
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Chapter 7 UN - Right to self-defence |
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UN Security council decides if it is legal or not, allows force. Strategically needed if you are a leader, so does not backfire (Tony Blair) |
In Bello - in war |
Governs war Conduct |
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Geneva Convention 1949 - Victims of war |
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Hague Convention 1899 and 1907 - Conduct of warfare |
Technology and War
Technology and War |
Reflects the priorities of that country, environment. Speed or defence? |
Quantity vs quality |
Increase in speed, protection, mobility= quality |
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Increase in amounts of the weapons = quantity |
New era of warfare |
Prioritised quality |
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Specialisation of military equipment |
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Commercial technology importance |
Asymmetrical Warfare |
Better technology vs guerilla |
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Motivation very important |
Challenges today |
News coverage |
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Hard for military to find new people - possibilities outside military |
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Conventional Power and Contemporary Warfare
Geopolitics and Grand Strategy
Causes of War
Human beings as causes |
Inclined towards violence |
Social psychologists |
aggression= results of frustration |
Wars from misconceptions |
Group thinking |
Democratic Peace theory |
Democracies go to war, but not against each other |
Bargaining theory |
Indivisible stakes |
Nuclear Weapons
Nuclear deterrence |
Soviets would not attack NATO, if convinced that they would retaliate with nuclear |
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Just because high probability that something wont happen doesnt mean that it wont (take North Korea using Nuclear Weapons, or Russia using Nuclear) |
Nuclear ages |
First Nuclear age 1945-1991, Second Nuclear Age now |
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Now more states have nuclear, less nuclear weapons overall |
Deterrence |
Preventing another state from doing something - making them keep their passive stance |
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Denial - Ability to win battle, being strong enough and therefore deterring. Like having a fortress around a castle |
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Trip Wire - Being credible in "punishing" as a response |
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Sometimes it is not obvious whether you are stronger than opponent (SK, Taiwan) |
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NATO - trip wire. Will US risk for us? All about blowing up the conflict. If small conflict in Finland how make pay attention |
Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty (NPT) |
Officially NPT acknowledges Russia, US, China, UK, France |
Cyber Conflict and Great Powers
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